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大转折,中美博弈进入新阶段!(深度好文)

大转折,中美博弈进入新阶段!(深度好文)

订阅 2019-5-30



中美贸易战真是一部史诗级的大战,人类经济史上从未有过如此级别的大战——无论是规模、深度和广大都是人类经济史最大的一次!

如果我们把一场战争分为启动、防守、反击和获得胜利的话,那么目前中国正处于反击的阶段——稀土拉开了中国反击的序幕!

这场战争从2018年3月23日0时50分美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署对华贸易备忘录正式开始,至今已经一年零2个月多了。

在这场史诗级的战争中,中美博弈异常激烈,目前已经进入到第三个阶段:中国主动反击阶段!

其实,如果连贯起来看,那么我们就会看到一个清晰的目录:

第一个阶段:边谈边打阶段

1、2018年3月美国对中国正式发动贸易战:3月23日,美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署对华贸易备忘录。特朗普当场宣布,将有可能对从中国进口的600亿美元商品征收关税,并限制中国企业对美投资并购。

2、5月3日和4日,美国由财政部长姆努钦、商务部长罗斯、美国贸易代表莱特海泽、白宫国家经济委员会主任库德洛、贸易顾问纳瓦罗、美国驻华大使布兰斯塔德和白宫国家经济委员会幕僚艾森斯塔组成的豪华谈判代表团来北京和中国进行第一轮贸易谈判,我方是副总理刘鹤带队。

2、2018年6月15日,美国政府发布了加征关税的商品清单,对从中国进口的约500亿美元含有工业重要技术的1333项商品加征25%的关税。

中国被迫还击,2018年6月16日凌晨,中国国务院关税税则委员会发布公告决定对原产于美国的659项价值500亿美元的进口商品加征25%关税。

3、2018年9月18日(记住这个日子),美国政府宣布新一轮关税,对价值2000亿美元中国进口商品征收10%关税,并威胁将对其加征25%的关税

随后,中国再次被迫还击,对原产于美国的5207个税目、约600亿美元商品,加征10%或5%的关税。

4、2019年4月30日美国贸易代表莱特希泽和财政部长努钦访问中国北京,同中国国务院副总理刘鹤举行中美第十轮贸易谈判。特朗普威胁谈判必须达成成果,否则将会把2000亿美元的商品关税由10%提高到25%。

5、中美贸易谈判破裂

6、2019年5月10日,美国将2000亿美元中国商品关税上调至25%

中国再次被迫还击——2019年5月13日,中国对已实施加征关税的600亿美元清单美国商品中的部分,提高加征关税税率,分别实施25%、20%或10%加征关税。 

可以说,这个阶段,美国是处于进攻阶段,中国是处于防守阶段。

但是,转折点在于5月16日!

5月16日,商务部召开例行新闻发布会,新闻发言人高峰少见的提出了三个核心关切问题:

一是取消全部加征关税。

关税是双方贸易争端的起点,如果要达成协议,加征的关税必须全部取消。

二是贸易采购数据要符合实际。

双方在阿根廷已经对此形成共识,不应随意改变。

三是文本平衡性。

任何国家都有自己的尊严,协议文本必须平衡可接受。在重大原则问题上中方绝不让步。

可以说,这三个条件,美国不可能同意!

中国也肯定知道美国不可能同意!

所以,我认为5月16日是一个转折点!

这一天,标志着中美贸易战进入第二个阶段:中美谈判破裂阶段!

很显然,这个阶段是中国主动发起的,理由很简单:如果在第一轮谈判的时候,中国就提出这三个核心关切的问题,那么根本就不会再有后面的谈判!

随后,美国再次发起了猛烈攻击:威胁对剩余的3250亿美元加征25%关税;同时,对华为进行的疯狂围堵!

然而,美国没有想到:中国之所以敢掀翻谈判桌,必然有底气的!

以我对中国建国后的一些列对外政策的理解:如果没有绝对把握的时候,中国不会如此做!

改革开放后,我们虽然一直在和美国斗,但是始终是“斗而不破”,现在既然敢掀翻桌子,那么必定是已经有这必胜的信心的!

事实上,中美贸易战进入转折点并非无迹可寻的!

2019年5月14日~5月25日,《人民日报》连发“九连评”。

大家注意这”九连评“的作者都是“钟声”。

我相信只要稍微关注点中国媒体的,就都会知道“钟声”是谁?

“钟声”就是指“敲响警钟,勿谓言之不预”的意思。

今天,《人民日报》再次发表文章:美方不要低估中方反制能力,勿谓言之不预!

如果说”钟声“是警告的意思,那么“勿谓言之不预”就是反击的号角!

所谓的”勿谓言之不预“的意思就是:不要说我没有提前告诉你!

可以说,“勿谓言之不预”这句话有很多媒体经常用。

比如,2016年南海仲裁案的时候,2017年中印对峙的时候、2018年加拿大拘捕孟晚舟的时候,除了《人民日报》外,中国的官方媒体都用了勿谓言之不预这句话!

如果说其它官媒使用这句话是严重警告的话,那么人民日报使用这句话就意味着准备开战了!

因为人民日报却是很少使用这句话,一旦用了,那么就意味着到底线了——中国已经忍无可忍,准备反击了!

事实上,在对外关系中,《人民日报》真正用过勿谓言之不预这句话只有四次:

第一次是1962年中印战争前夕;

第二次是1978年中越自卫反击战前夕;

第三次是2017年6月中印边境对峙的时候,最终印度临阵脱逃了;

第四次就是2019年5月29日的对美贸易战上。

所以,我认为2019年5月29日就是中美贸易的另一个转折点:中国正式进入反攻阶段,而反击的第一个手段就是——稀土。

至于华为,我认为只是中美贸易战的一个小战场,无关大局!

然而,就是这么一个“小战场”,美国都没有讨到任何的便宜!

美国先是动用国家力量对华为进行围堵,切断高端芯片,然而紧接着华为宣布:华为在高端芯片上都有“备胎”,一夜之间全部转正!

再然后,谷歌等公司对华为进行了围堵,紧接着,华为宣布自己的操作系统;再然后,SD卡、蓝牙、wifi三大国际技术联盟对华为发难,紧接着华为宣布超级蓝牙技术即将登场……

我相信,到这,大家都看到一个相对清晰、完整的战略部署了!

中美史诗级的贸易战形势已经彻底逆转了——中国从战略防守阶段正式过渡到战略反击阶段了!

2018年3月23日-2019年5月16日为中美贸易战的第一个阶段,边谈边打阶段,这个阶段中国始终处于防守阶段;

2019年5月16日,中美贸易战谈判破裂,通过各项准备,已经完成战略部署,准备开始反击战;

2019年5月29日,这是一个值得重视的日子,因为这一天是中国拉开反击序幕的日子——中国即将对美国主动开第一枪!

特别说明:这个反击不是因为美国围堵华为而发动的,因为美国围堵华为只是一个国家对一个企业发动的“战争”,而中国以稀土为反击,针对不是某个企业,而是整个美国,这两者有着本质上的区别——级别不对等。

所以,以稀土为手段,这是中国第一次对美国发动贸易战的主动进攻

虽然反击战还没有正式打响,但是序幕已经拉开!

而根据我对中国高层决策的理解:如果没有必胜的信心,中国是不会这么做的!

最后,我们再来看一个视频,大家就会明白:什么是中华民族?

中国在衰弱的时候会忍辱负重,但是在有本事的时候,绝对会抵抗到底!

虽然这场史诗级的战争离终点还很远,但是已经没有任何悬念了!

中国必胜!



169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。 171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。 172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。 173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。 175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。 176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧! 177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。 178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。 180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。 181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。 183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。 185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。 186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。 188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。 When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。 181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。 183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。 190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。 192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。 194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few y


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